The Metrics That Actually Matter at Seed Stage
The five metrics that indicate product-market fit at seed stage and why retention is the only one that matters.
Founders at seed stage obsess over the wrong numbers. MRR. CAC. LTV. These metrics matter eventually. But not at seed.
At seed, you are not optimizing a business model. You are searching for one.
This is the only metric that matters at seed. Are people coming back? Are they using your product more over time?
Week 1 retention: 40%+. Week 4 retention: 20%+. Week 8 retention: 15%+.
How many users are you getting without paid acquisition? 20%+ of new users should come from organic channels.
How long does it take for a new user to get value from your product? Users should experience core value in first session.
How often are your best users using your product? Your best users should be using your product multiple times per week.
Are people paying? Conversion rate from free to paid: 2%+.
TAM. CAC. LTV. Revenue growth rate. These are Series A metrics, not seed metrics.
If we could only see one metric, it would be retention. You cannot build a great company on top of a leaky bucket.
